The Whole Workforce on the Quadrant
Same framework as /education/adaptive-capacity but expanded to every 3-digit SOC minor group in the IoM census — not just the slice UCM teaches toward. The point is to see, on one chart, where the UCM-served population sits inside the wider workforce, and where the no-pathway-at-all groups cluster.
We're in a weird transition phase — read every signal twice.
Labour market signals and AI disruption are arriving at the same time. UCM is a partner in the response, not the target of analysis. Where we flag a gap, treat it as an opportunity to lead.
Why two adaptive-capacity pages?
UCM-served slice. The 4-digit SOCs UCM offers training for — about 12,000 census workers across 66 occupations. Capacity is scored from per-occupation UCM pathway depth. This is the page UCM curriculum committee uses to identify cohort-scaling and catalogue-gap priorities.
Whole census. Every 3-digit SOC minor group on the Island — about 43,313 workers across 105 groups. Capacity is rolled up from UCM to 3-digit; groups with zero UCM pathways score very low on capacity, which is the policy point. This is the page Treasury / DfE workforce planners use to see where the wider workforce sits relative to the UCM-served population.
Both pages use the same exposure threshold (≥ 50) and capacity threshold (≥ 50). The UCM-served quadrant's 32.1% vulnerable share is a hotspots-map number; this page's vulnerable share is a population-level number. The two are complementary, not duplicative — read them together.
High AI exposure × low adaptive capacity.
High exposure × high capacity.
Low exposure × high capacity.
Low exposure × low capacity.
4.2% of the whole IoM workforce sits in the vulnerable cell
Across all 105 3-digit SOC minor groups in the IoM census (43,313 workers covered), the vulnerable cell — high AI exposure × low adaptive capacity — accounts for 4.2% of workers. The number is structurally lower than the UCM-served page's 32.1% because we're now including the lower-exposure trades and care occupations the UCM-served slice excluded. But the absolute headcount tells the policy story: whatever fraction it is, that's the population whose retraining infrastructure is the thinnest.
Each dot is a 3-digit SOC minor group; size = census workforce in that group.Pink dashed border marks groups with zero UCM pathway — the catalogue-gap groups. Hover for detail.
Every census 3-digit SOC minor group, scored
| Cell | Minor group | Workers ↓ | Exposure | Capacity | Median £ | UCM courses | Grads/yr | Lag | Skill xfer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶113Functional Managers and Directors· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS2 4-digit SOCs | 4,823 | 41 | 46 | £67k | 16 | 255 | 18mo | 54 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 411Administrative Occupations: Government and Related Organisations· ADMINISTRATIVE AND SECRETARIAL OCCUPATIONS | 2,658 | 23 | 8 | £30k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶614SOC 614· CARING, LEISURE AND OTHER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS5 4-digit SOCs | 1,666 | 42 | 43 | — | 30 | 471 | 12mo | 41 |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶242Finance professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS4 4-digit SOCs | 1,646 | 35 | 88 | £46k | 74 | 1386 | 18mo | 41 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 356Public Services Associate Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 1,604 | 26 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 412Administrative Occupations: Finance· ADMINISTRATIVE AND SECRETARIAL OCCUPATIONS | 1,528 | 39 | 7 | £27k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 711Sales Assistants and Retail Cashiers· SALES AND CUSTOMER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 1,505 | 38 | 3 | £14k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶531Construction and Building Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS5 4-digit SOCs | 1,492 | 9 | 47 | £33k | 29 | 457 | 18mo | 46 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 923Elementary Security Occupations· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 1,390 | 35 | 0 | £3k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶231Teaching professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS3 4-digit SOCs | 1,288 | 38 | 25 | £40k | 3 | 48 | 24mo | 19 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶354Business Associate Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 1,094 | 44 | 24 | £36k | 1 | 20 | 18mo | 117 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶213Information technology professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS3 4-digit SOCs | 1,023 | 42 | 37 | £53k | 11 | 178 | 24mo | 59 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 927SOC 927· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 1,010 | 36 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| ⚠️ Vulnerable | 421Secretarial and Related Occupations· ADMINISTRATIVE AND SECRETARIAL OCCUPATIONS | 988 | 52 | 6 | £23k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 821Road Transport Drivers· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 941 | 30 | 9 | £33k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶353Finance Associate Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS3 4-digit SOCs | 899 | 38 | 71 | £45k | 53 | 978 | 18mo | 87 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶543Food Preparation and Hospitality Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS2 4-digit SOCs | 870 | 27 | 35 | £25k | 13 | 244 | 18mo | 18 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶223Nursing professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 808 | 14 | 41 | £37k | 22 | 303 | 24mo | 27 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 416SOC 416· ADMINISTRATIVE AND SECRETARIAL OCCUPATIONS | 799 | 18 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶612Animal Care and Control Services· CARING, LEISURE AND OTHER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS2 4-digit SOCs | 773 | 17 | 33 | £27k | 9 | 196 | 18mo | 13 |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶212Engineering professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 707 | 29 | 50 | £53k | 36 | 412 | 36mo | 22 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 111Chief Executives and Senior Officials· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 704 | 33 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 125Managers and Proprietors in Other Services· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 673 | 36 | 14 | £52k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶511Agricultural and Related Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS2 4-digit SOCs | 618 | 12 | 27 | £28k | 8 | 100 | 24mo | 92 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶221Medical practitioners· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS2 4-digit SOCs | 617 | 18 | 32 | £70k | 9 | 165 | — | 71 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶532Building Finishing Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 549 | 23 | 25 | £32k | 3 | 24 | 24mo | 92 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 122Managers and Proprietors in Hospitality and Leisure Services· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 539 | 42 | 9 | £35k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 613Caring Personal Services· CARING, LEISURE AND OTHER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 515 | 22 | 7 | £25k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶524Electrical and Electronic Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS2 4-digit SOCs | 498 | 16 | 55 | £40k | 43 | 480 | 18mo | 102 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 331Protective Service Occupations· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 489 | 25 | 10 | £38k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶622Hairdressers and Related Services· CARING, LEISURE AND OTHER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS2 4-digit SOCs | 476 | 18 | 35 | £15k | 16 | 296 | 12mo | 72 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶244Business and financial project management professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 459 | 28 | 4 | — | 1 | 12 | — | 0 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 912Elementary Construction Occupations· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 438 | 20 | 7 | £27k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 321Health Associate Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 406 | 19 | 7 | £28k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶311Science, Engineering and Production Technicians· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS3 4-digit SOCs | 400 | 29 | 60 | £35k | 51 | 624 | 24mo | 61 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶241Legal professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 387 | 41 | 16 | £40k | 2 | 60 | — | 45 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶523Vehicle Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS2 4-digit SOCs | 310 | 17 | 32 | £35k | 9 | 140 | 18mo | 101 |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶522Metal Machining, Fitting and Instrument Making Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS3 4-digit SOCs | 297 | 18 | 50 | £38k | 36 | 412 | 18mo | 58 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 924Elementary Sales Occupations· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 285 | 36 | 4 | £16k | 0 | — | — | — |
| ⚠️ Vulnerable | ▶313Information Technology Technicians· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 284 | 55 | 30 | £34k | 9 | 146 | 24mo | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 112Production Managers and Directors· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 281 | 40 | 15 | £54k | 0 | — | — | — |
| ⚠️ Vulnerable | ▶344SOC 344· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 276 | 56 | 24 | — | 10 | 159 | 24mo | 116 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 811Process Operatives· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 270 | 24 | 8 | £30k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶243Business, research, and administrative professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 229 | 46 | 30 | £48k | 11 | 207 | — | 129 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶247Librarians and related professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 227 | 41 | 23 | £33k | 1 | 20 | 18mo | — |
| ⚠️ Vulnerable | 721Customer Service Occupations· SALES AND CUSTOMER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 219 | 50 | 7 | £28k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 921Elementary Administration Occupations· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 217 | 36 | 7 | £26k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 814Assemblers and Routine Operatives· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 196 | 28 | 8 | £30k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 119SOC 119· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 185 | 34 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 355Sales, Marketing and Related Associate Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 179 | 47 | 10 | £36k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 222Therapy professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 169 | 20 | 10 | £36k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 521Metal Forming, Welding and Related Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS | 164 | 10 | 10 | £37k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 312CAD, drawing, and architectural technicians· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 144 | 30 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶342Design Occupations· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 138 | 33 | 50 | £36k | 33 | 531 | 18mo | 0 |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶341Artistic, Literary and Media Occupations· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS3 4-digit SOCs | 127 | 41 | 51 | £38k | 33 | 531 | 18mo | 0 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶211Natural and social science professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS4 4-digit SOCs | 124 | 27 | 37 | £45k | 15 | 212 | 24mo | 0 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | ▶621Leisure and Travel Services· CARING, LEISURE AND OTHER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 121 | 29 | 39 | £29k | 15 | 319 | 12mo | 88 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 911Elementary Agricultural Occupations· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 115 | 19 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 124Managers in Logistics, Warehousing and Transport· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 110 | 24 | 11 | £42k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 926Other Elementary Services Occupations· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 86 | 23 | 7 | £25k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 351Transport Associate Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 85 | 23 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 117Health and Social Services Managers and Directors· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 77 | 32 | 14 | £51k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 118SOC 118· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 73 | 34 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 962SOC 962· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 68 | 10 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🛡️ Overqualified | ▶415Other Administrative Occupations· ADMINISTRATIVE AND SECRETARIAL OCCUPATIONS1 4-digit SOC | 61 | 48 | 63 | £25k | 51 | 946 | 18mo | 99 |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 813Plant and Machine Operatives· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 57 | 25 | 9 | £32k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 116Senior Officers in Protective Services· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 57 | 33 | 19 | £67k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 544Other Skilled Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS | 56 | 32 | 8 | £29k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 823Other Drivers and Transport Operatives· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 54 | 20 | 16 | £58k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 115Managers and Directors in Retail and Wholesale· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 53 | 41 | 10 | £36k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 812Metal Working Machine Operatives· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 50 | 22 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 541Textiles and Garments Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS | 49 | 32 | 7 | £26k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 624Cleaning and Housekeeping Managers and Supervisors· CARING, LEISURE AND OTHER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 48 | 31 | 6 | £25k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 323Teaching and Childcare Associate Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 48 | 45 | 6 | £22k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 246Welfare professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 46 | 20 | 10 | £35k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 245Architects, chartered architectural technologists, planning officers, surveyors, and construction professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 45 | 37 | 11 | £40k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 343Sports and Fitness Occupations· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 41 | 6 | 3 | £13k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 913Elementary Process Plant Occupations· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 34 | 19 | 7 | £27k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 922Elementary Cleaning Occupations· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 29 | 16 | 7 | £25k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 822Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 23 | 32 | 9 | £34k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 123Managers and Proprietors in Health and Care Services· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 23 | 29 | 11 | £39k | 0 | — | — | — |
| ⚠️ Vulnerable | 611Teaching and Childcare Support Occupations· CARING, LEISURE AND OTHER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 22 | 53 | 4 | £17k | 0 | — | — | — |
| ⚠️ Vulnerable | 214Web and multimedia design professionals· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 22 | 64 | 11 | £39k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 712Sales Related Occupations· SALES AND CUSTOMER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 21 | 29 | 7 | £28k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 413Administrative Occupations: Records· ADMINISTRATIVE AND SECRETARIAL OCCUPATIONS | 21 | 41 | 8 | £29k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 121Managers and Proprietors in Agriculture Related Services· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 16 | 34 | 9 | £33k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 132SOC 132· MANAGERS, DIRECTORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS | 14 | 10 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 623Housekeeping and Related Services· CARING, LEISURE AND OTHER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 13 | 30 | 5 | £21k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 315SOC 315· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 13 | 35 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 816Production, Factory and Assembly Supervisors· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 9 | 24 | 10 | £35k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 542Printing Trades· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS | 8 | 35 | 7 | £27k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 824SOC 824· PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES | 7 | 32 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 999SOC 999· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 7 | 10 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 914SOC 914· ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS | 6 | 20 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 000SOC 000· Major group 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 533Construction and Building Trades Supervisors· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS | 4 | 26 | 12 | £45k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 414Administrative Occupations: Office Managers and Supervisors· ADMINISTRATIVE AND SECRETARIAL OCCUPATIONS | 4 | 34 | 9 | £35k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 235SOC 235· PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 4 | 38 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 722Customer Service Supervisors· SALES AND CUSTOMER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 1 | 23 | 9 | £34k | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 713Shopkeepers and Sales Supervisors· SALES AND CUSTOMER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS | 1 | 47 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 549SOC 549· SKILLED TRADES OCCUPATIONS | 1 | 31 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| ⚠️ Vulnerable | 422SOC 422· ADMINISTRATIVE AND SECRETARIAL OCCUPATIONS | 1 | 66 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 371SOC 371· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 1 | 10 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 357HR, Training and Other Vocational Associate Guidance Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 1 | 45 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| 🏠 Sheltered | 352Legal Associate Professionals· ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONAL OCCUPATIONS | 1 | 43 | 9 | £32k | 0 | — | — | — |
Reading the table: Exposure ≥ 50 = high (red); Capacity ≥ 50 = high (green). UCM courses = parent courses (modules suppressed) targeting any 4-digit SOC inside this 3-digit minor group. Pink “0” values are the no-pathway groups — different policy problem from slow-pipeline groups, see methodology. Grads/yr is the estimated annual UCM throughput. Lag is the fastest qualifying UCM route in months. Click any row with a “4-digit SOCs” counter to see the per-occupation cells inside that minor group — the within-group heterogeneity that the 3-digit aggregation hides.
Methodology — every input visible
0.55 × Felten AIOE + 0.25 × Anthropic automation + 0.20 × (1 − Anthropic augmentation), rescaled to 0-100. The Felten signal substitutes for Frey-Osborne at 3-digit minor-group level (the census view aggregates 4-digit FO out). Cell threshold ≥ 50 = high.
- UCM pathway count (rolled up to 3-digit) — 30%
- UCM annual graduate supply — 20%
- Median wage (mobility proxy) — 20%
- Training lag, inverted — 15%
- Field diversity (distinct UCM categories) — 15%
4-digit SOC pathway data from education-page-data.json aggregated to 3-digit minor groups by prefix-matching. Each course contributes once per minor group regardless of how many 4-digit matches it has inside that group.
3-digit aggregation, with drill-down: The quadrant scores at 3-digit minor-group level because that's what vw_census_treemap exposes. Aggregation can hide within-group heterogeneity (one minor group might contain a heavily-exposed and a lightly-exposed 4-digit SOC averaging out). To address this: click any minor-group row in the table to drill into the 4-digit SOCs UCM teaches toward inside that group, with their per-SOC adaptive cell, exposure, capacity, pathways and skill-transferability score. The drill-down covers UCM-served SOCs only — any 4-digit SOC inside the minor group that UCM doesn't teach toward folds into the group's “no-pathway” share but isn't individually enumerated. For pure per-4-digit detail (without the census denominator) use /education/adaptive-capacity directly.
Honest limit 2: the capacity formula is the same shape as the UCM-served page, but for groups with no UCM pathway the only non-zero component is the wage normalisation. So a high-wage no-pathway group (e.g. some senior-management cells) scores moderate capacity even with no UCM offer — interpreted as “these workers can self-fund transitions”. A low-wage no-pathway group floors near zero, which is the right signal.
Source: NBER Working Paper w34705 (Manning & Aguirre, January 2026). The blog post Who's Exposed AND Stuck? walks through the full reasoning behind both pages.